As we’ve mentioned, decisions are out, so we took some time this week to dive a little bit deeper into what the statistics are showing us for schools that have already released their admissions data for the current cycle. Of course, none of this is fully complete because we do not have final waitlist numbers yet, but we are so excited to be able to share some of our key takeaways with you!
Note: These are based on the 100+ colleges and universities who have released data so far, and may change as we hear from more schools, so we will make sure to keep you updated with what we learn!
1. Colleges are receiving more applications.
It seems like we’ve been talking about this all cycle, but initial data is showing that it is absolutely true. Overall, the Common ApplicationⓇ saw an 11% increase in applications this cycle. What is interesting to note is that the increase came mostly from students applying to more schools, not an increase in the number of students using the app. 9% of students applied to additional colleges, while the rise in different students applying accounted for only 2% of the jump.
On average, students who used the Common App submitted 5.8 applications each. We recommend looking at this number as a baseline, encouraging students to aim for the 8-12 range with an absolute minimum of 6.
Of course, the total number of schools to which a student should apply is closely linked to the probability of admission to each individual school. Remember that selectivity and predictability are inversely proportional - so a straight-A student with a perfect test score hoping for a highly selective school will have a very unpredictable outcome no matter how qualified she is. As such, that student will need to apply to more schools than a peer with a less competitive academic profile.
The unpredictability factor offers one explanation for the unequal distribution of application increases during this cycle. We learned that “dream reach” schools, those highly selective schools with admissions rates in the single or low double digits, saw an average application volume increase of 28% year over year! Yikes.
We collected some of the data from schools that are popular with our students:
And at the University of Florida, which was one of the only schools in the country to still require students to submit test scores? An increase of only 6%.
2. Early decision REALLY matters.
We have always emphasized to our students that ED is one of the best tools in the college application process for students that do not need to compare financial aid offers, and this was more true in this cycle than ever before (we say that each year, by the way - every year it just becomes more and more important).
If you’ve been reading for a while, you know that we’ve been posting nonstop about the plummeting acceptance rates across the board that we saw this year. But ED applicants experienced an entirely different landscape at many schools - in fact, those numbers are moving in the opposite direction! Yes, it was actually easier, on the whole, to be admitted ED during Fall 2020 than it was in Fall 2019! That’s wild when you consider how enormous the applicant pools were.
Overall, the differential in acceptance rates shifted another 4% this past cycle in favor of ED applications. At many of our students’ target schools, however, the ED rate saw an increase of 10% year over year.
At BC, the ED admit rate went up 9% from last year. Johns Hopkins saw an 11% increase from last year, while UVa’s went up 6%. Bucknell and Villanova had the largest increases - with ED admit rates soaring over 15% higher year over year!
3. We did see some deferral impact after all.
At the start of this cycle, many colleges tried to assure students that the high rates of deferral for the Class of 2020 would not impact their selectivity for the Class of 2022. We even wrote about it!
However, this did not turn out to be accurate at some schools - particularly at smaller institutions which had less of an ability to absorb the deferrals.
Duke, for instance, had already filled 9% of its Fall 2021 class with students who deferred admission. Williams, which already has a tiny entering class in and of itself, filled a whopping 21% of its spaces with students who deferred! This cut the admit rate for regular decision students in half, from 13% to 6.5%.
Given what ended up happening this year, we anticipate that we will continue to see an impact for the Class of 2022 - particularly at smaller schools that couldn’t fully absorb the impact in one year.
4. Regular decision has taken a big hit.
Looking at the factors above, it is no surprise that regular decision admit rates plummeted the way they did. The combination of more applications overall, more students admitted ED, and more spots filled by deferrals led to an incredible drop in regular decision rates across the board.
At Bucknell, for instance, students who applied early decision were 42% more likely to be admitted than those who applied regular decision. At BC, early decision applicants were 22% more likely to be admitted.
Just a note that the information above applies to ED I applicants at most schools. ED II, a binding option with a later deadline, has an extremely varied impact depending on the school. At BC, for instance, the ED II admit rate was similar to the ED I rate - in other words, significantly higher than the regular decision rate. At Emory, by contrast, ED II had almost no statistical impact on admission, because ED II applicants were admitted at around the same rate as regular decision applicants (to be fair, they may have been a less qualified group overall, so there was probably a slight difference).
5. Test scores do matter - a bit.
This is the information that many students and parents were most eager to hear this cycle: does it matter if I submit test scores or not? The answer is, again, it depends. At the most selective schools, those with the single-digit acceptance rates, it is so difficult to be admitted that test scores don’t really seem to make much of a difference from a statistical standpoint. Depressing, right?
But here’s the interesting thing - schools in the moderately to very selective range (as compared to the “most” or “ultra selective” ones mentioned above) did actually wind up leaning more on test scores than they claimed they would. On average, the admit rate for students who did not submit test scores was 15% lower than those who did. And then, because nothing is ever simple in our world, test score submission stopped mattering again for schools a little further down the selectivity ladder!
Take UGA, for example: students who submitted their test scores were 16% more likely to be admitted than students who did not. The graphic above might give you some idea as to why - with a 39% jump in applications, they needed some way to sort applicants!
Again, though, we can’t emphasize enough this is such an individual decision and general statistics will not paint an accurate picture for a given student. A straight-A student with an “average” test score should not jump to submit; more often than not, that student is still better off withholding for any school (of course, this depends on extracurricular involvement, course rigor, and so forth). If you are wondering whether you should be submitting test scores to your schools, chat with us or check out our blog post on the topic: Is Test-Optional a Trap?
6. It is truly the year of the waitlist.
Again, this is something we’ve discussed on the blog before, but it bears repeating: wait lists, this year, are big. And I mean really big. Schools are putting together these lists with the expectation that they will have a low yield on admitted students, due to the fact that students applied to many more schools and that they may not have had the opportunity to visit before applying, so may be more likely to change their minds.
And in truly mind-boggling news, we know of at least one highly selective school that will not allow accepted students to deposit if they plan to remain on other school’s waitlists. Can you imagine? In a scenario like that, a student would have to choose between depositing at the one they have vs. remaining under consideration at schools they prefer. This particular school has agreed to grant some extensions to students who wanted to remain on waitlists, but it’s unclear as to how many and for how long. Insane!
If faced with that choice, my advice would be to go with the bird in hand, but this is unprecedented. It’s exactly what I was talking about last week regarding the lack of regulation in our industry, now that NACAC’s “Code of Ethics and Professional Practices" no longer exists.
If you are on a waitlist, or you simply have a lot of decision letters and are unsure what to do next, we are happy to help! In the past week, we have heard from so many brand-new Class of 2021 seniors looking for advice that we added a strategy session just for non-client seniors who need post-decision help - let us guide your next steps!
CHECK OUT THE POSTS BELOW FOR MORE ON DATA AND TRENDS IN COLLEGE ADMISSIONS!
